Modi–Putin Again: Strategic Partnership or Risky Russia Bet?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet on September 11 in New Delhi, just before the BRICS summit. Defence, energy, trade, nuclear cooperation and emerging technologies are expected to dominate the discussion, with India reportedly seeking deeper cooperation on areas including Su-57 fighter technology and nuclear power.

For India, maintaining strong ties with Moscow makes strategic sense. Russia remains an important defence partner, a major energy supplier and a source of fertilisers and other critical resources. India has also managed to maintain economic engagement despite Western sanctions on Russia. Bilateral payments have reportedly become easier, with national currencies now facilitating most trade. This gives New Delhi another option in a world increasingly divided by geopolitical rivalries.

But the uncomfortable question is: how much should India bet on Russia? The Ukraine war has turned Moscow into a heavily sanctioned power, while Russia's growing dependence on China could limit its strategic independence. India also faces pressure from the United States and Europe over Russian energy purchases. Deepening defence dependence on Russian technology could become risky if sanctions, supply problems or geopolitical tensions disrupt future deliveries.

The Modi government argues that India is following strategic autonomy, not choosing one camp over another. That argument has merit—India can cooperate with Russia while simultaneously strengthening relations with the US, Europe, Japan and other partners. But strategic autonomy only works when India has enough alternatives. If Russia becomes indispensable for defence or energy, autonomy could gradually turn into dependence.

Putin's visit therefore presents Modi with a difficult balancing act. India needs Russia—but does Russia need India just as much? And as Moscow moves closer to Beijing, is India's Russia policy protecting national interests or creating a strategic risk for the future?